Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) sees that the world situation is now increasingly serious. All countries, including Indonesia, must prepare anticipations so that the pressure they will feel later is not so heavy.

“We must be grateful that our growth is still above 5%,” said Jokowi some time ago, as broadcast on the Cabinet Secretariat’s YouTube account, Friday (27/10/2023)

Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani acknowledged the current global economic pressures, such as the impact of war conditions occurring in various regions, such as the wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Palestine, fluctuations in high prices of energy and food commodities including the El Nino phenomenon, as well as trends High interest rates have the potential to put pressure on the Indonesian economy starting in the fourth quarter of 2023.

He said, due to global pressure conditions, Indonesia’s economic growth would weaken to 4.86% in the fourth quarter of 2023, from the initial assumption of 5.06%. Then, for the whole year, it will weaken to the level of 5.04% from the initial assumption of 5.09%, and in 2024 the economic weakening will only grow 5.08% from the assumption in the 2024 APBN of 5.2%.

APBN realization as of September 2023

The realization of the state revenue and expenditure budget (APBN) as of September 2023 continues its positive trend. The APBN surplus was IDR 67.7 trillion or 0.32% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Meanwhile, the primary balance is still a surplus of IDR 389.7 trillion.

The APBN surplus was supported by state revenues of IDR 2,035.6 trillion or grew 3.1% year on year. Meanwhile, state spending grew 2.8% year on year to IDR 1,967.9 trillion.

Indonesia’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2023 reached 5.17%. This positive trend is expected to continue in the third and fourth quarters with the economy. Even though it is still below the APBN target of 5%.

Inflation as of September 2023 on an annual basis (year on year (yoy) reached 2.28%, below the APBN assumption of 3.6%.

The rupiah exchange rate is currently under great pressure, almost reaching the level of IDR 16,000 per US dollar. However, seen from the beginning of the year, the rupiah only depreciated 1.35%. On average from the beginning of the year it was 15,171 per US dollar, slightly above the assumption of Rp. 14,800 per US dollar.

The 10-year SBN interest rate in the APBN assumptions is set at 7.9%. The realization as of October 24 was 7.10% (eop) and 6.59% (eop).

The price of Indonesian crude oil (Indonesia Crude Price) was recorded at US$90.1 per barrel (eop) and US$77.69 per barrel. Oil production as of September was 608.6 rbph and gas 954.5 rbsmph.

[Gambas:Video CNBC]

(mij/mij)